Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…
Executive Summary Natgas Price Surge Boosts Hydrogen's Prospects Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the surge in EU natural gas prices it provoked will accelerate investment in clean-hydrogen technology, which uses…
The Polish central bank (NBP) surprised markets yesterday with a 100bps rate hike to 4.5%, following a 75bps rate hike last month. The central bank rate hikes come after strong headline and core inflation prints in recent months…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Executive Summary Europe Is Russia's Key Gas Customer Full-on rationing of natural gas by Germany took a step closer to reality, as the standoff with Russia over its insistence on being paid in roubles for gas plays out.…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
Executive Summary Higher Prices Expected Global oil supply will move lower for a few months, until shipping can be re-routed and re-priced in response to sanctions against Russian oil producers and refiners. In the…