Highlights The big issue is not whether the omicron variant of SARS-Cov-2 is a ‘super-variant’. The big issue is that, eventually, a new variant will be a super-variant. This is because the billions of unvaccinated…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…
Global risk assets recovered some of Friday’s losses on Monday. The S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 rebounded 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively, the US 10-year Treasury yield ended the day 2.6 bps higher, and Brent regained 1%.…
Highlights The euro has entered a period of acute stress. Some of the EUR/USD’s plunge reflects the dollar’s broad-based strength. The dollar is supported by the market’s pricing of the Fed and China’s…
Dear Client, We had an error in our oil balances/forecasts report from 18 November 2021 resulting from a double counting of select US onshore production figures. This has been corrected below. Highlights Higher oil production…
Europe is once again at the center of the pandemic. On Friday, the WHO reported that two million COVID-19 cases were reported in Europe last week – an all-time high. Governments are responding. A three-week partial lockdown…
Highlights Economy – It is more likely that the third quarter slowdown reflected demand deferral than demand destruction: We are not concerned that the lousy third quarter GDP release heralds stagflation. Massive fiscal transfers…
Highlights The circumstances of the pandemic improved in October, but data highlighting the economic consequences of the Delta wave grew more severe. US economic activity slowed meaningfully in the third quarter, driven by lower car…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will be presenting the quarterly Counterpoint webcast titled ‘Where Is The Groupthink Wrong? (Part 2)’. I do hope you can join. Highlights If a continued surge in the oil price…