Developed Countries
Investors should maintain a conservative and defensive strategy until recession risks are clearly reduced.
Canada’s exports and imports grew by 1.5% m/m and 0.6% m/m respectively in October, causing the trade surplus to widen to a larger-than-expected CAD 1.21 bn from a downwardly revised CAD 607 mn in September. Nearly three quarters of Canada’s exports go to…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the Cash Rate by 25bps to a 10-year high of 3.1% on Tuesday – the third consecutive quarter-point increase after it unexpectedly slowed the pace of hikes in October. Governor Philip Lowe’s post-meeting…
The S&P 500 has climbed 9.7% since mid-October, reducing the magnitude of the index’s decline since its January 3 peak to 18.2%. The question facing investors is whether the recent gains represent a bear market bounce that will ultimately give way to…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends that investors enter 2023 with close to benchmark portfolio duration and with an underweight allocation to spread product versus Treasuries. While 2022 was a year of rapid Fed tightening, 2023 will be one…
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2022.
2023 will be another challenging year for the US equity market, characterized by the Fed’s battle with inflation, slowing economic growth, and earnings contraction. The S&P 500 is likely to reach new lows in the first half of the year falling as much as 20-25%, only to rebound sharply in the second half, once all the bad news is priced in.
The ISM Services PMI surprised to the upside, unexpectedly expanding at a faster pace in November. The headline index rose by 2.1 ppts to 56.5, led by the business activity and import sub-indices which rose by 9.0 and 9.1 ppts to 64.7 and 59.5, respectively.…
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service concludes that earnings will continue on a downward path in 2023, and analyst downgrades are highly likely. Earnings growth is key to 2023 equity performance. With economic growth deteriorating, it is reasonable to…
Labor market strength and consumers’ evident willingness to dip into their pandemic savings keep our optimistic consumer thesis intact. We remain tactically overweight equities.