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Developed Countries

The chart above shows equity valuations ahead of the eight most recent major S&P 500 drawdowns. It suggests that there is some evidence that the magnitude of decline in equity prices is somewhat dependent on equity valuations ahead of the drawdowns. In…
Heading into 2023, BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service recommends fixed-income investors overweight Euro Area IG relative to both government bonds and US credit, while adopting a more cautious stance toward high-yield. European corporate…
Special Report

Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.

Special Report

We explore the eight major themes that will define economic and market trends for Europe next year.

  According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, a winning strategy is to be long currencies where real interest rates could rise in a recession. These include petrocurrencies (specifically the NOK), as well as the currencies of…
The US producer price index (PPI) release was hotter-than-anticipated in November. Headline PPI for final demand was unchanged at 0.3% m/m, beating expectations of 0.2% m/m. Moreover, the core measure accelerated to 0.4% m/m from an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m,…
  The latest US and Eurozone CPI inflation releases both surprised to the downside, fueling optimism among investors that central banks will soon pivot. However, US labor market dynamics remain very tight. The November jobs and wage growth figures…
  S&P 500 Growth stocks have underperformed the Value index by 21% so far this year, erasing all of their relative gains since the S&P 500’s March 23, 2020 pandemic bottom. This year’s rapid increase in bond yields has weighed more heavily…

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.

Special Report

Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.