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Developed Countries

Essentials
Projected US Treasury Returns In Three Economic Scenarios
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, US Treasuries have limited downside, even in relatively optimistic economic scenarios, but considerable upside in a recessionary scenario. They devise three plausible scenarios for how the US economy…
3 years ago
Essentials
Spanish CPI Inflation Runs Hot In January
Preliminary estimates suggest that Spanish headline harmonized CPI inflation (HICP) accelerated to 5.8% y/y in January, from 5.5% y/y, largely surpassing expectations for a moderation to 4.8% y/y. A reacceleration of fuel prices compared to January 2022, as…
3 years ago
Essentials
UK Stocks Will Outperform If Market Sentiment Relapses
UK stocks have been underperforming their Eurozone peers recently. The MSCI Euro Area index’s 39% gain in the four months since its trough dwarfs the UK benchmark’s 27% increase since its September 27 bottom. Notably, this comes after a period of comparative…
3 years ago
Essentials
Swiss KOF Signals Tentative Improvement
The Swiss KOF Barometer jumped 5.7 points to 97.2 in January, marking the second consecutive monthly increase, pushing the index to the highest level since June 2022. Importantly, the January increase reflects improvements across all of the KOF barometer’s…
3 years ago
Essentials
Will The Semi Rally Endure?
In recent months, US and global semiconductor companies have participated in financial markets’ “risk-on” phase. The semiconductor subsector of the S&P tech sector is up 39.4% since mid-October, outperforming the broad index by 25.8% during this period…
3 years ago
Essentials
Relief For The European Consumer
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Eurozone domestic demand is likely to be firm in 2023. Declining inflation will have a positive impact on consumption because it will lift real wages, which are currently contracting at 7%…
3 years ago
Equities
The Calm Before The Storm

The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we review the most recent macroeconomic, geopolitical, and equity market developments, and do our best to separate facts and data from sentiment and conjecture. We conclude that there are many challenges ahead and equities are not in a clear yet. We recommend investors add small positions in areas of the market that benefit from rate stabilization while maintaining an overall defensive stance.

Irene Tunkel
3 years ago
US Equities
FICC
The Outlook For UK Gilts & Sterling: The Calm After The Storm
Special Report

This week’s Special Report goes over the structural problems facing the UK economy and our outlook for UK gilts and the sterling following turbulent moves in 2022.

Chester Ntonifor
3 years ago
BondsCurrencies
FICC
Projecting US Bond Returns For 2023
Special Report

This week’s Special Report uses our Golden Rule of Bond Investing to forecast US Treasury returns for 2023 under different economic scenarios.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
Bonds
Essentials
US Consumption Declines, Savings Rate Jumps In December
The December US PCE report corroborates evidence from the Q4 GDP release that underlying demand is weakening in the US. Real personal spending declined by a larger-than-expected 0.3% m/m in December, following a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly contraction.…
3 years ago

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