Developed Countries

The equity market is back to the 2019 level on an inflation-adjusted basis. However, it is still not cheap as it is not pricing in the possibility of a prolonged and deep earnings recession or a higher interest rates regime. Many areas of the market that appear cheap, are cheap for a reason. The only industries that are cheap because they are growing into their valuations are Energy and Airlines. We are upgrading Airlines to equal weight.

3 years ago

US Equities

Essentials

The Beginning Of A Relapse In European Soft-Data?

The March Sentix Economic Index sent a cautionary signal about investor morale. The overall index for the Eurozone declined from -8.0 to -11.1 – marking the first monthly decrease since the index bottomed at -38.3 in October and missing expectations of a…

3 years ago

Essentials

US Savings Rate Rises And Falls With Income Growth

According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service excess pandemic savings are far more evenly spread than most investors realize, and all but the households at the bottom of the distribution are swimming in cash. The team has used the savings rate…

3 years ago

FICC

Bonds Have Value Above 4%

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.

3 years ago

Bonds

CoreMacro

Too Hot, Too Cold, Both Or Neither?

A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term.

3 years ago

Essentials

How Low Can The Japanese Inflation Drop?

Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…

3 years ago

Essentials

A Natural Endowment Does Not Benefit Norwegian Krone

NOK is the worst performing major currency year-to-date, down more than 6% against the dollar and 5% against the euro. That is on top of a nearly 10% drop in 2022. Notably, as a major oil producer, and increasingly a natural gas exporter, NOK has not…

3 years ago

Essentials

US: Still No Recession in Sight

BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s view continues to be that inflation, rather than recession, is the bigger risk for 2023. Nevertheless, even in the US where inflationary pressures are most acute, there are still significant deflationary…

3 years ago

FICC

When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

3 years ago

Currencies

FICCCoreMacro

When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

3 years ago

Currencies Europe

Developed Countries

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