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Developed Countries

China’s Middle East Diplomacy Eclipses SVB

China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security issues in the Middle East could incentivize oil and gas capex and affect oil flows. With short- to medium-term fundamentals largely unchanged, we are keeping our 2023 and 2024 Brent forecasts similar to last month, at $95/bbl and $110/bbl, respectively.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
US Retail Sales Decline Following January’s Strong Print
US retail sales delivered a relatively somber signal about consumer demand in February. The advance estimate’s 0.4% m/m decline in February came in line with expectations of a decrease following January’s upwardly revised 3.2% m/m gain. Notably, the…
Daily Insights
Will US Homebuilders Continue Outperforming?
US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest…
Daily Insights
Worst Performing “Tech” Are Not In The IT Sector
The relative performance of Global Information Technology stocks is about flat since the beginning of 2021. This might come as a surprise. Haven’t tech companies been crushed?  Not exactly. For sector allocators it is important to be specific about…
Daily Insights
The US Has Passed Two Staging Posts To Recession
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is more imminent than most economists anticipate. Exactly one year ago today, the US Federal Reserve embarked on the most…
Daily Insights
Goldilocks: Possible But Improbable

The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
How The ‘Most Anticipated Recession’ Is Still Unanticipated

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
The Fed Can’t Afford To Stand Pat
The US CPI release indicates that price pressures remained elevated in February. Importantly, core CPI inflation ticked up on a month-on-month basis to 0.5% m/m – above expectations it would remain unchanged at 0.4% m/m – marking a continuation of an uptrend…
Daily Insights
Canadian Labor Market Remains Surprisingly Resilient
Canada’s labor market has been surprisingly resilient over the past few months. Last Friday’s employment report showed a 21.8 thousand increase in jobs in February, more than double expectations of 10 thousand. This continues a string of strong beats.…
Daily Insights
NFIB: Inflation, Tight Labor Market Are Key Concerns
The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…
Daily Insights

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