Developed Countries
UK inflation came in hotter-than-anticipated in March. Headline inflation remained in double digits at 10.1% y/y, above expectations that it would recede from 10.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Similarly, the core index was unchanged at 6.2% y/y, disappointing consensus…
Like most other risk assets, US high-yield corporate bonds sold off in March during the banking turmoil in the US and Europe. The overall Bloomberg US high-yield index spread rose from a low of 389bps on March 6, just before the news on the funding problems…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
The Q1-2023 US earnings season started last Friday. As companies report, we will gauge the effects of the Fed’s monetary campaign on corporate profitability. With inflation declining, and demand faltering, sales growth is key. According to Factset,…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…
The ZEW Survey of German investor sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in April. The sentiment index fell 8.9 points to 4.1, disappointing consensus estimates of an uptick to 15.6 and recording its second consecutive monthly decline. This move reveals that…
Typically, emerging market equities outperform when the US dollar is soft. But that has not been the case in the past month. Although the broad trade weighted US dollar has relapsed, EM stocks have continued underperforming their developed market peers. Will…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that in the near-term (3-months), investors should favor bond sectors with low exposure to both rate risk and credit risk such as T-bills and agency bonds. One of the traditional relationships that fixed…
The top diplomats of the G7 countries – US, Japan, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Italy – plus the European Union are meeting in Karuizawa, Japan on April 16-18. The summits are going forward despite Japan’s recent domestic security concerns stemming from a…
The reason why the EU will try to balance economic ties with China along with defense ties with the US for as long as possible is not strictly economic. Europe and the US are much more reliant on China than Taiwan for trade, but that has not prevented the US…