Developed Countries
In this report, we assess the best opportunities in inflation-linked bonds in the major developed economies, based on trends in growth, inflation and the stance of monetary policies in each country. We conclude that the environment is turning more challenging for European inflation-linked bond performance versus nominal government bonds, while the opposite is true in Japan. In the US, US TIPS breakevens have likely peaked, particularly at the short end.
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Thursday. The 5.2% m/m decline in new orders for manufactured durable goods came in below expectations of a 4.0% m/m decrease and marks the biggest monthly drop since April 2020. On the one hand,…
Nvidia’s stock price hit a fresh all-time high on Thursday after its blockbuster Q2 earnings call. The company reported it generated $13.51 billion in revenue last month (above expectations of $11.2 billion) and forecasted an increase to $16 billion in Q3…
In a June insight, we discussed the possibility of a sustained lumber rally due in part to resilient housing market activity in the US and supply constraints in Canada, a major exporter of lumber. Since then, prices have remained largely flat. On the…
Yesterday we highlighted that the August update of the Philly Fed’s Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook survey sent a negative signal, with the New Orders, Sales, and Employment components all deteriorating. On Wednesday, the flash estimate of the US services…
Earlier this week, EUR/JPY closed at a fresh 15-year high, bringing its year-to-date gain to 14%, before losing some ground over the subsequent two days. To the extent that the recent increase in global bond yields continues to encourage carry trades, it has…
European natural gas prices have recently been trending higher with the Dutch TTF gaining 66% since late July. The proximate cause of the rally is supply concerns. The risk of strikes at Australian LNG plants are a threat to the country’s LNG shipments –…
The flash August S&P Global PMI data released on Wednesday painted a picture of softer global growth, while also hinting that Europe is on the cusp of recession. The composite PMI for the euro area fell by 1.6 versus the previous month to 47.0, led by…
Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed and fell by 14.5 points to -13.1, indicating…
The jubilant summer rally came to a halt in August, with the S&P 500 down 4.4% MTD. A confluence of factors has weighed on the performance of US equities ranging from economic malaise in China to too-hot economic data and surging long Treasury…