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Developed Countries

US Small Caps: Will The Rally Be Reignited?
After having sold off in the first five months of the year, the performance of small-cap stocks improved in June and July with the S&P 600 index gaining 13.9% in those two months. A broadening of the US equity rally – which earlier in the year was…
Daily Insights
The Odds Of Bull-Steepening
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that coincides with the onset of the next recession and…
Daily Insights
Some Lessons From Jackson Hole And A Shift In Our Yield Curve Positioning

We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
French Luxuries Trump US Technology

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
JOLTS: A Cooling US Labor Market
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the US labor market continues to cool. It showed job openings fell to 8.827 million in July following a downwardly revised 9.165 million in June (down from the earlier estimate of…
Daily Insights
US And China Agree To Hold Semiannual Trade Dialogue
The US and China agreed to hold trade talks more regularly on August 28, even as they fell short of establishing a strategic détente or general reduction of tensions. US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang…
Daily Insights
Will US Data Deliver More Strong Positive Surprises?
On the surface, the latest uptick in the General Business Activity Index of the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Survey suggests that manufacturing activity is no longer deteriorating at an accelerating pace. The indicator rose by 2.8 points to -17.2 in August —…
Daily Insights
Signs Of Slowdown: Eurozone Services Sector
The Eurozone's economy remains soft. Yesterday we highlighted that M3 money supply fell by 0.4% y/y in July, a rate unseen since 2010. This decline was driven by a slowdown in private sector bank lending, which confirms broad economic weakness. Notably, the…
Daily Insights
Return Assumptions 2023 Edition
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service updated its long-term return assumptions for a wide range of public and private assets. While still lower than the historical returns, the team’s projected returns are slightly higher than…
Daily Insights
Return Assumptions 2023 Edition – A Bit Higher For Bonds, A Bit Lower For Equities

A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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