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Developed Countries

Essentials
Limited Growth Impact Of Uninspiring US Housing Market
Recent US housing market data has been uninspiring. The FHFA house price index decelerated in March from 1.2% m/m to 0.1% m/m, disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m, and the S&P CoreLogic 20-City index growth rate declined from 0.55% m/m to 0.33% m/m.…
2 years ago
Essentials
Sizeable Gap Between Payroll Model And Actual Payroll Growth
At BCA Research, fundamentals drive our analysis and we use indicators and quantitative metrics as guides to inform our views further. It is our fundamental assessment of the US labor market that underpins our view that softer labor demand and decelerating…
2 years ago
Essentials
The Long Yen Trade Will Fire Soon
Our Global Investment strategists highlighted back in November 2022 that structural deflationary forces in Japan were weakening, thus setting the stage for inflation to make a historic comeback in Japan. About a year later, they highlighted that 2024 could…
2 years ago
Essentials
Excess Liquidity Phenomenon Also Affects European Markets
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the money sloshing around the financial system from pandemic-era stimulus measures disconnects near-term prospects for growth from risk asset prices. As a result, we are witnessing an odd…
2 years ago
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FICC
Where To Find Value In DM Government Bonds
Special Report

In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.

Jonathan LaBerge
2 years ago
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Equities
Big Pharma: Early Or Wrong
Special Report

We recommend overweight in Pharma over a tactical and strategic investment horizon, as challenges, that have recently hampered the industry group’s performance, are dissipating. Likely election outcomes are positive for the industry, while major trends like generative AI applied to drug development and an aging population are long-term tailwinds.

Matt Gertken, Irene Tunkel
2 years ago
AI
Essentials
German Business Confidence Disappoints
Sentiment among German companies stalled in May, after having firmed for 3 consecutive months. The IFO Business Climate came in at 89.3, unchanged from April, disappointing expectations of further strengthening to 90.4. Although respondents’ assessment of…
2 years ago
Essentials
One Last Blow-Off Rally In Cyclicals Is Plausible
The US manufacturing cycle has followed a surprisingly stable pattern for over seven decades. History suggests that this cycle tends to last for about 36 months, with a down leg spanning 18 months, followed by an up leg approximately spanning another 18…
2 years ago
Essentials
A Soft Landing For The Labor Market Is Unlikely
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, there is only a narrow path to a soft landing. Our colleagues estimate a mere 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. The US unemployment rate is a highly…
2 years ago
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CoreMacro
What To Expect When You’re Expecting A Recession

The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.

Doug Peta
2 years ago

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