Highlights Duration: The Treasury market has moved quickly to price-in expectations of a strong economic recovery, while the Fed has been more cautious about moving its own rate forecasts. We think that the market’s expectations…
Highlights Biden’s policy on China is hawkish so far, as expected, but temporary improvement is possible. We are cyclically bearish on the dollar but are taking a neutral tactical stance as the greenback’s bounce could go…
Highlights US-China tensions are escalating over the Taiwan Strait as Beijing tests the new Biden administration, yet financial markets are flying high and unprepared for a resumption of structurally elevated geopolitical risk. US…
Highlights Further fiscal easing is likely in the US now that the Democrats are set to take control of the US Senate following Tuesday’s runoff elections in Georgia. With the end of the pandemic in sight, a growing chorus of…
Highlights With a vaccine already rolling out in the UK and soon in the US, investors have reason to be optimistic about next year. Government bond yields are rising, cyclical equities are outperforming defensives, international stocks…
Kenya: An Incomplete Adjustment The Kenyan shilling will depreciate by 15-20% in the next 12 months. The downward pressure on the currency stems from the country’s sizeable current account deficit. In addition, Kenya needs lower…
Highlights Lower-income Chinese households are overly indebted, while higher-income groups hold too much cash. Apart from real estate and cash, ordinary Chinese people have few choices in allocating their assets. Household…
Dear Client, US Investment Strategy will take the first of two summer breaks next week, so there will be no publication on July 13th. We will return on July 20th with the latest installment of our Big Bank Beige Book, reviewing the five…