Currencies

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Dear Client, In lieu of our weekly report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Tuesday with my colleague Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist, on the implications of stagflation on…

Executive Summary After having overspent on goods ex-autos over the past two years and experiencing contracting incomes in real terms, US and European households will reduce their purchases of goods ex-autos. Risks to global growth stemming from China…

Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core inflation is about to peak, and…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course? The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course…

Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US has never averted a recession…

Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Le Pen And Other Hurdles (GeoRisk Update…

Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for the Chinese economy…

Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term…