Currencies

In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.

On one hand, China will be exporting deflation to the rest of the world. On the other hand, core inflation is sticky in the US, making the Fed err on the hawkish side. Altogether, these crosscurrents are creating a toxic mix for risk asset prices.

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

This report reviews our key calls for major currencies, in light of recent data releases.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.