Consumer Discretionary

Neutral Yesterday's news that Disney was buying key media content assets from Twenty-First Century Fox, including movie studios and some cable properties, came as a surprise to few following longstanding rumors the assets were for sale and Monday's announcement from Comcast that they were no…

We downgraded the S&P homebuilders index to underweight last week, owing to three factors: higher interest rates on the back of a pickup in inflation expectations, the threat to mortgage deductibility in pending tax reform and sky-high lumber prices. Weak earnings from Toll Brothers (TOL,…

Neutral Cable & satellite stocks received a much-needed boost last week when it was announced that the head of the U.S. Federal Communications Commission planned to scrap the landmark 2015 rules to guarantee net neutrality. Such a move was unsurprisingly championed by the largest internet…

As we near the end of an impressive year for equities, the relationship between price growth and earnings growth and how to best position a portfolio for 2018 bears some reflection. The purpose of this report, rather than take a position on inflation or growth, is to create a roadmap such that…

Underweight Higher interest rates on the back of a pickup in inflation expectations is another BCA theme that should materialize in 2018. Tack on high lumber prices and likely tax reform blues and the S&P homebuilders index, the best performing sub-index within consumer discretionary…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global capex growth, a derivative of BCA's synchronized global growth thesis, will be a dominant theme next year, benefiting cyclicals over defensives. Three high-conviction calls are levered to this theme. Higher interest rates on the back of a…

Dear Client, Today we are sending you a two-part Special Report prepared by my colleague Billy Zicheng Huang of our Emerging Markets Equity Sector Strategy team, entitled “A Sector Guide To A-shares”. Part I of the report was published in September, and emphasized the key takeaways from MSCI…

The shares of movie & entertainment firms have been under pressure in the last several weeks, despite what has generally been a positive Q3 earnings print, driven down by speculation the AT&T/Time Warner merger may be blocked by the Department of Justice. Rumors that Disney was…

Highlights Broad Chinese equity market performance since last month's Party Congress is consistent with our view that the pace of reforms over the coming year will not cause a meaningful deceleration in China's industrial sector. Stay overweight Chinese stocks. After accounting for…

U.S. home sales have been soaring, with new single-family homes reaching a 10-year high in September, driven by still-low financing costs and peaking consumer sentiment. This surging housing demand which includes temporary hurricane rebuilding related sales, has already shown up in earnings; HD…