Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that American households experienced a minor improvement in confidence in August. The headline index ticked up 0.7 points to 72. The minor increase…
US retail sales for August delivered a positive surprise. The headline number grew 0.7% m/m following the prior month’s downwardly revised decline of 1.8%. Similarly, the retail sales control group expanded 2.5% m/m from a…
Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss our view on China’s economy and financial markets. I will also address the topics that our clients are most concerned…
Highlights Economy – A partial undoing of 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is in the works as Congress takes up the Biden Administration’s infrastructure agenda: A modest increase in the marginal corporate tax rate to…
Highlights Economy – Goldilocks remains our base-case macro backdrop for the next twelve months: The transitory inflation narrative is still intact, despite persistently high consumer price increases, suggesting that the economy…
Highlights Our willingness to spend money depends on which ‘mental account’ it occupies. Once windfall income enters our ‘savings mental account’, we will not spend it. Hence, the pandemic’s windfall…
Dear Client, There will be no US Investment Strategy next week as we take our summer vacation. We will return on Monday, September 6th. We wish everyone a happy and safe conclusion to the summer. Best regards, Doug Peta Highlights…
Highlights Going into the new crop year, we expect the course of the broad trade-weighted USD to dictate the path taken by grain and bean prices (Chart of the Week). Higher corn stocks in the coming crop year, flat wheat stocks and…
Highlights Investors have grown enamored with online retailers (AMZN), payment processing companies (V, MA, PYPL, SQ), and social media companies (FB, SNAP). All three sectors are likely to experience headwinds over the next 12 months…
Feature June’s economic data and second-quarter GDP indicate that China’s economic recovery may have peaked. Slight improvements in some sectors, including manufacturing investment, exports and consumption, were offset by…