Executive Summary China’s Daily New COVID Cases And City Lockdowns, 2020 To Present  The ongoing wave of local Omicron infections and city lockdowns pose the largest macro risk in China post Q1 2020. The current lockdowns in…

Executive Summary We have been constructive-to-bullish on financial markets and the economy since policymakers marshaled the full force of their resources to protect the economy from the pandemic in the spring of 2020. The…

Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…

Executive Summary Fed officials maintained the drumbeat of hawkish commentary last week, reiterating their commitment to use the full might of their tools to bring inflation to heel. Stock and bond markets reacted adversely when…

Special Report

Highlights The buildup of excessive household debt in Canada over the past two decades has occurred because of outsized demand for housing, not because of the impact of constrained housing supply on house prices. Outsized demand for…

Highlights The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a geopolitical incident that is likely to be limited in scope. A wholesale energy cutoff to Europe is the chief risk to global economic activity, but the sanction response from the US and EU…

Executive Summary While inflation has unquestionably surprised to the upside, the US will not enter a self-reinforcing spiral unless an inflation mindset takes hold throughout the economy. The two leading surveys have wildly…

Executive Summary The recent 26 percent overspend on durable goods constitutes one of the greatest imbalances in economic history. An overspend on goods is corrected by a subsequent underspend; but an underspend on services is not…

Executive Summary China Needs To Create RMB35 Trillion In Credit In 2022  The pace of credit creation in January increased sharply over December. However, the jump was less than meets the eye compared with previous easing…

Feature This week, we present the third edition of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) Global Credit Conditions Chartbook – a review of central bank surveys of bank lending standards and loan demand. The data from…