Consumer

Executive Summary We continue to recommend overweighting risk assets in multi-asset portfolios over the next six months because we believe financial markets have prematurely priced in too much pessimism. Against a particularly uncertain macroeconomic…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating Euro Bulls Are Evaporating…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The Dollar Has Broken Before The First Line Of Support…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers…

S&P 500 Chart 1Macroeconomic Backdrop Macroeconomic Backdrop…

Executive Summary The constructive economic view that has us at odds with the consensus rests on three premises: excess pandemic savings will allow consumption to grow at trend, despite inflation; inflation will soon peak, moving to around 4% by year end…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Investors Are Pricing In A Much More Aggressive Tightening Cycle Than At The Start Of The Year Investors Are Pricing In A…

Executive Summary Reporters at last week’s post-FOMC press conference were consumed by the prospect of a recession. Their questions about the economy echoed the analysts’ on bank earnings calls and Chair Powell’s answers echoed the CEOs’ and the CFOs’:…

US services spending collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and remains significantly below the level that would have prevailed had the pandemic not occurred. This raises the question of whether services consumption will ever return to “normal.” In this…

Executive Summary Compared to output, income and net worth, aggregate consumer indebtedness is at the low end of its twenty-first century range. Modest indebtedness and low interest rates have made it easy for households to service their debt and leave…