According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Indian stocks, which benefitted immensely from foreign portfolio inflows and are now very expensive, remain vulnerable to any global risk-off sentiment. The…
The 1mm b/d surge in US crude oil production last year was the result of a flood of low-cost drilled-but-uncompleted (DUCs) shale-oil wells coming online, mostly in 2H23 in the Permian Basin, which our colleagues in BCA's…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change…
Recent data suggest that the US housing market is resilient. In particular, a strong rebound in homebuilder sentiment is sending a positive signal. The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped from 37 to 44 in January – handily…
Chinese data continues to send a pessimistic signal for domestic risk assets and China plays. Although at 5.2% in Q4, GDP growth stands above the official target, it underwhelmed anticipations of 5.3%. Moreover, other data…
The US retail sales release delivered a positive signal about the US economy in December. The 0.6% m/m increase in overall retail sales beat expectations of a more muted acceleration from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m. Importantly, the…
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased…
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced.…
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to…
On the surface, domestic economic data painted a mixed picture of conditions in China at the end of 2023. On the positive side, the December trade data beat expectations. The dollar value of Chinese imports expanded by 0.2% y/…