According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, aggressive fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility contributed to the relative strength of the US consumer. However, adverse region-specific effects also…

  The preliminary University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment unexpectedly dropped in June to 65.6 from 69.1, against expectations of improving morale. Consumers’ assessments of current conditions declined by a larger…

  The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle…

  Chinese new loans grew from CNY 10.2 tr to CNY 11.1tr in May, disappointing expectations of CNY 11.3tr. Year-to-date aggregate financing also came short of anticipations, growing from CNY 12.7tr to CNY 14.8tr. Notably, the…

  The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month…

  The redeployment of pandemic-era excess savings has been a significant driver of US consumption growth and helped the economy avoid a recession last year. Although pandemic-era fiscal support was less generous in China,…

  Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy…

  According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the economy has been in the “Overheating” phase of the cycle for a while, with signs of slowing growth but also stubbornly high inflation. The most…

  Consumption accounts for two-thirds of the US economy, and our recession view relies heavily on the deteriorating outlook for US consumers. That said, dissecting US GDP into its components reveals that consumption tends to…