Commodities & Energy Sector
Global ag markets will become more volatile as anthropogenically induced climate change continues to degrade farmland. This will make price signals emanating from these markets less efficient in terms of processing supply-demand fundamentals. All else equal, food prices likely move higher, which will contribute to inflationary biases in the medium-to-long run. Investors will continue to seek out farmland investments as a way to diversify portfolio risk and raise absolute returns.
Clients are increasingly more positive about the US economy, but there are no signs of exuberance. The rally could continue as the majority is not fully invested. Financial conditions have already eased, and the Fed is unlikely to surprise on the upside but will deliver a promised cut this summer. CRE is a still pain point of the US economy. We are not bearish, but after a fast and furious rally, markets are fragile.
On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper supply mushroomed despite persistent worries about supply shortages. This report uncovers this puzzle and elaborates on the outlook for copper prices. The conclusion is that red metal prices are still vulnerable.
Qatar’s strategy to raise LNG output 84% by 2030 is a bold bet DM demand for energy security – and EM demand for affordable electricity to support economic and population growth – will remain a higher priority than eliminating fossil-fuel consumption over the next 20 years. This will accelerate the development of a global LNG spot market, which will increase demand for LNG tankers.
The market narrative continues to be dominated by the Magnificent Six, which drove both market performance and strong Q4 earnings results. While all sectors and styles have recently turned green, the rally is still mostly narrow. Earnings growth appears to be strong, but outside of the Magnificent Six, many companies are struggling. The market appears expensive and overbought, but that is mostly down to the high valuations and the popularity of the Magnificent Six.
Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.
MacroQuant upgraded equities to overweight in February on a tactical short-term (1-to-3 month) horizon, but it continues to see downside risks to stocks on a medium-term (12-month) horizon. Consistent with the model’s relatively somber medium-term growth outlook, it sees more downside for bond yields on a 12-month horizon than on a 1-to-3 month horizon.