China Stimulus
BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy team’s view remains that US inflation will prove to be sticky. That said, in this report, we examine under what conditions a considerable drop in US core inflation, whenever it transpires, would be bullish for stocks. Potentially significant US disinflation would be bullish for stocks if it is due to an improvement in supply-side dynamics, but bearish if it is demand driven.
In this report, we elaborate on why the Chinese central government has been reluctant to open stimulus taps as much as in the past, especially when it comes to the ailing property market. In recent years, there has been a major shift in Beijing’s assessment of the trade-offs between short-term economic growth, sociopolitical stability and the nation's long-term goals. We explain this difficult balancing act, little-known in the global investment community.
This week’s <i>Global Investment Strategy</i> report titled Fourth Quarter 2022 Strategy Outlook: A Three-Act Play discusses the outlook for the global economy and financial markets for the rest of 2022 and beyond.