Executive Summary Onshore Equity Market Outflow Pressures Remain, At Least In The Near Term China’s foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell in the first three months of 2022. The reduction was the largest quarterly fall…
China’s money and credit data surprised to the upside in March. Aggregate financing jumped to CNY 4.65 trillion from CNY 1.19 trillion and beat expectations of a CNY 3.55 trillion increase. Similarly, new bank loans more…
Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…
Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have essentially frozen a large share of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Last month, Russia’s finance minister Anton Siluanov revealed that…
Executive Summary Natgas Price Surge Boosts Hydrogen's Prospects Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the surge in EU natural gas prices it provoked will accelerate investment in clean-hydrogen technology, which uses…
Unsurprisingly, service sector activity slowed in China in March, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 restrictions amid surging infection rates. However, the magnitude of the Caixin Services PMI’s drop was much greater than…
Executive Summary Shanghai Is Extending Lockdowns Due To Exponentially Rising COVID Cases The economic impact of China’s struggle with another wave of COVID outbreaks is showing up in March’s PMI and high-…
Executive Summary Equities Are Still Attractive Versus Bonds Macroeconomic Outlook: Global growth will reaccelerate in the second half of this year provided a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached. Inflation will temporarily come…
Data from the National Bureau of Statics indicates that Chinese economic activity deteriorated in March. The official composite PMI fell from 51.2 to 48.8 – below the 50-line separating expansion from contraction and the…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that it is too early to turn bullish on Chinese equities. Beijing is stepping up its pro-growth stimulus, particularly on the fiscal front. However, unless there…