Canadian CPI inflation came in at 4.4% year-over-year for September, blowing through analyst expectations and hitting an 18-year high. Meanwhile, the CPI-trim, a core measure which strips out extreme price movements, hit 3.4…
The Canadian economy is reaping the rewards of the country’s swift vaccination campaign. Employment rose by 157 thousand and reached its February 2020 pre-pandemic level in September. Importantly, the increase reflects a nearly…
Highlights Q3/2021 Performance Breakdown: Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed the custom benchmark index by +8bps during the third quarter of the year. Winners & Losers: The government bond side of the portfolio…
Home prices around the world are continuing their march higher. Canada’s Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index accelerated to 18.4% y/y in August from 17.8%. Similarly, the UK’s Rightmove House Price index advanced 5.…
Inflationary pressures are likely to keep the Bank of Canada at least as hawkish - if not more hawkish - than the Fed. Headline CPI accelerated to a 18-year high of 4.1% y/y in August. The diffusion index's extremely…
Highlights Canada has been a G10 leader in innoculating its population. This should allow economic activity to resume, boosting the CAD/USD. A cresting in COVID-19 infections should permit the Bank of Canada to reintroduce a hawkish…
The Bank of Canada left policy unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. The benchmark interest rate remains 0.25% and the central bank will continue purchasing Canadian government bonds at the current pace of CAD 2 billion a week…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
BCA Research's Global Fixed Income Strategy service concludes that Canadian fiscal policy is likely to remain supportive for growth over the next few years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called a snap federal election…