Brazil
Accumulate Brazilian Real Estate Assets (Part One…
Feature Conditions are falling into place in Brazil that will facilitate a recovery in physical property prices as well as the outperformance of real estate stocks. With the overall Brazilian equity index having rallied considerably, investors are now wondering which sectors of the market…
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would have paid off with long Russian equities versus EM. We…
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would have paid off with long Russian equities versus EM. We…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue. European risks are limited short-term, but will surge without…
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue. European risks are limited short-term, but will surge without…
While the trade-war cease-fire agreed at the G20 summit between the U.S. and China boosted grain markets – particularly as China agreed to begin “substantial” purchases from the U.S. – the future of the trade relationship remains uncertain. The agreement to work out an agreement only holds for 90…
Brazil: A Regime Shift?…
Jair Bolsonaro, an ex-army captain and a right-leaning, law-and-order candidate has won a surprising victory in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election (Chart I-1). Bolsonaro came within striking distance of 50%, but did not cross that threshold, which means that the second round…
Highlights The presidential race between Haddad and Bolsorano will be very tight. At present, we put slightly higher odds on Haddad winning by a small margin in the second round. A Haddad victory would lead to a continuation of stress in financial markets. The prospects of Lula's release and…