Highlights The dollar is likely to churn on recent weakness before a cyclical bear market fully unfolds. The reason is that the economic landscape remains fraught with uncertainty, both politically and economically. We continue to…
Highlights Please note that we are publishing an analysis on Vietnam below. The unprecedented depth of this recession entails that many businesses will likely be operating below their break-evens for a while, even after the…
Feature “People have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy.” Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Monthly Memo March 2020 Markets have moved…
Last Thursday, BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service wrote that it now expects the global economy to shrink not just in the first quarter but in the second quarter as well, as country after country experiences a…
Highlights We spent last week meeting with clients in South Africa, who maintained their equanimity despite the spread of the coronavirus: Maybe it was because there were not yet any reported cases close to home, but investors…
Highlights The coronavirus is a wild card that may have a significant impact on the global economy, … : The COVID-19 outbreak is unfolding in real time, half a world away, and its ultimate course is uncertain. For now, our China…
Highlights The SARS episode of 2003 suggests that the panic over the coronavirus will only subside when the number of new cases peaks. Although the latest data is somewhat encouraging, it is far from clear that we have reached that…
Highlights The consensus view seems to be that equities have to cool off in 2020, even if the danger has passed: Recession fears have dissipated as the yield curve has returned to its normal upward-sloping orientation and US-China…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent…