Highlights The surge in energy prices going into the Northern Hemisphere winter – particularly coal and natgas prices in China and Europe – will push inflation and inflation expectations higher into the end of 1Q22 (Chart of…
Highlights Gold prices will continue to be challenged by conflicting information flows regarding US monetary policy; higher inflationary impulses from commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks; global economic policy uncertainty,…
In an Insight last week, we highlighted that the American Association of Individual Investors’ latest survey reveals a collapse in sentiment. Bears now exceed bulls by a wide margin. However, this downbeat assessment is not…
Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…
The American Association of Individual Investors’ latest sentiment survey reveals that bullish sentiment has collapsed. Bears exceeded bulls by 16.9 points in the week ending September 15 – among the widest margins in the history…
The rally in US Treasurys since March has been positive for tech stocks. The S&P 500 tech sector outperformed the benchmark by 6.58% since then. This strong performance has occurred despite elevated inflation prints and the…
Highlights The odds of a stronger recovery in EM oil demand next year are rising, as vaccines using mRNA technology are manufactured locally and become widely available.1 This will reduce local lock-down risks in economies relying on…
Feature Chart 1Chinese Offshore Stocks Tumbled Amid Regulatory Crackdowns Relative to the global equity index, onshore and offshore Chinese stocks have fallen by 18% and 32%, respectively, since their peaks in mid-February (…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
Highlights Regulatory changes affecting Chinese platform companies are structural – rather than transitory – in nature. These companies might become quasi-SOEs and could be used by the government to achieve its national…