Banks
Yesterday, BCA Research's US Investment Strategy service continued its series of reports on How Vulnerable Are US Banks? Unused loan commitments have provoked much agitation among investors in recent weeks. A floundering company, desperately trying to stay afloat, may well draw down all of its…
Highlights The potential range of book value outcomes for large banks is enormous, … : Total credit losses will be a function of the virus’ persistence, the intensity and duration of the social distancing actions taken to combat it, and the efficacy of monetary and fiscal policy measures meant…
On Tuesday, BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service concluded that the cyclical outlook for Brazilian bank stocks has worsened further due to the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the fact that valuations have improved. Brazilian banks have plunged 55% in US$ terms since their high in January.…
Highlights Recommended Allocation
Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Playing The Optionality…
Highlights Wells Fargo’s path, before and after deregulation, has been similar to every other SIFI bank’s: It began by serving a single area in a single state, expanded within the state, and then pieced together its regional and national footprint via combinations. A review of 50 years of…
Time To Bank On Banks?…
Highlights Duration: Bond yields will stay low until the daily number of new COVID-19 cases falls to zero, at which point a sell-off is likely. We therefore recommend maintaining below-benchmark portfolio duration on a 6-12 month horizon. Rising odds of a Bernie Sanders presidential win could…
Highlights An analysis on Turkey is available on page 10. In the short term, EM share prices will likely continue searching for a direction as visibility is extremely low. Beyond the near term, an appropriate strategy for EM equity investors is buying breakouts and selling breakdowns. The…
Highlights The coronavirus is a real threat for the global economy and financial markets: We expect that the epidemic will be contained before it takes too much of a bite out of global output, but it has become the biggest market wild card. We are watching for a peak in new infections as a tell…
Highlights Malaysian businesses and households have been deleveraging and the economy risks entering a debt deflation spiral. This macro-backdrop is bond bullish. EM fixed income-dedicated investors should keep an overweight position in both local currency and US dollar government bonds. In…