In the first five months of the year, optimism about GAI (generative AI) drove a narrow rally in US equities. The three sectors that contain companies that are most exposed to this dynamic were the only ones that experienced…
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is…
Since the release of softer (than expected) CPI numbers in the US, markets have embraced a soft-landing scenario for the global economy. In the FX space, the DXY has broken down below the psychological level of 100. Will this…
Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book reveals that economic activity rose slightly in recent weeks. The results are based on surveys and interviews conducted across 12 districts through June 30. In particular, two of the districts…
The NFIB survey provided a slightly positive signal about the US economy in June. Small business optimism improved from 89.4 to a 7-month high of 91.0 – beating expectations of a more muted increase to 89.9. Details of…
A range of indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is currently under duress. But should this weakness be extrapolated into the rest of the year? The US manufacturing cycle tends to follow a very predictable wave-…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service uses three simple rules when trading the dollar over a medium-term horizon (12-18 months). What could the macro outlook look like? What is happening to valuations? And where…
In the past we have highlighted a dichotomy in the global economy characterized by weak manufacturing conditions versus a robust service sector. As goods spending normalized from the pandemic binge, consumption of services…
The Global Manufacturing PMI’s 0.8-point decline to a six-month low of 48.8 in June indicates that manufacturing conditions deteriorated at the end of Q2. The forward-looking New Orders and New Export Orders components both…