Asset Allocation
Highlights Historically, when global growth picks up, the yen weakens. But this is less likely in an environment where global yields remain anchored at low levels. Meanwhile, there is rising risk that consumption in Japan will remain muted. This will…
Please note that yesterday we published Special Report on Egypt recommending buying domestic bonds while hedging currency risk. Today we are enclosing analysis on Hungary, Poland and Colombia. I will present our latest thoughts on the global macro outlook…
In a webcast this Friday I will be joined by our Chief US Equity Strategist, Anastasios Avgeriou to debate ‘Sectors To Own, And Sectors To Avoid In The Post-Covid World’. Today’s report preludes five of the points that we will debate. Please join us…
Highlights Volatility strategies are a useful tool for asset allocators. They can be used for both alpha generation and risk mitigation, but they have to be managed properly within a fund’s total risk management framework. Dedicated tail-risk hedging can…
Highlights Social distancing must persist to prevent dangerous super-spreading of COVID-19. The jobs recovery will be much weaker than the output recovery, because the sectors most hurt by social distancing have a very high labour intensity. This will…
Highlights Chart 1More Stimulus Forthcoming?
More Stimulus Forthcoming…
The COVID-19 induced recession has accelerated several paradigm shifts that were already afoot. Populism, anti-immigrant sentiment, deglobalization, and fiscal profligacy were replete – particularly in the US – even before the pandemic. For the first time…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of May 29, 2020. The model has not made any significant change this month. It has kept the same order for the top four overweight countries (Spain, Australia, Sweden, and the US) as well…
Feature The key to how markets will move over the coming 12 months is whether the coronavirus pandemic turns out to be a short-term (albeit severe) disruption to the world economy, or something more fundamentally damaging. Markets currently – with…
An analysis on Turkey is available below. Highlights Due to the sizable stimulus announced by the NPC, we are upgrading our outlook for Chinese growth for this year. Nevertheless, in terms of investment strategy, we are reluctant to chase China-…