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A number of divergences have emerged in global financial markets. These gaps are unsustainable. The recent improvement in Asian trade/manufacturing has been largely due to firming demand for electronics/semiconductors. Meanwhile, demand/output for industrial goods and basic materials - the areas leveraged to Chinese capital spending - remain weak. Fixed-income traders should bet on yield curve steepening in India: receive 1-year/pay 10-year swap rates.

Yield and Protector Portfolios should continue to benefit in current environment. Equities face seasonal headwinds.

For the month of June, the model performed in line with both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of July, the model is increasing its risk exposure.

Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term opportunity to buy GBP/JPY has emerged. We still like the SEK and commodity currencies. The SNB will continue to intervene, but the peg is increasingly dangerous.

Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.

The Brexit drama has moved from the realms of psephology into the realms of game theory. How will the game play out? And how will the economy and financial markets react?

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

The Russo-Chinese relationship got a diplomatic boost this week, but can China provide Russia with the capital it needs to boost productivity meaningfully?

The people have spoken: they want the U.K. out of the EU. The political and economic uncertainty will weigh on the pound and European currencies, which will help the dollar. Commodity currencies are proving resilient, sniffing out a wave of reflation. The G7 gave Japan a green light to intervene. Buy gold in yen terms.

If the U.K. ultimately exits the EU, it will be a major break in the 70 years of European integration. Multipolarity will be reinforced, increasing global geopolitical risk. We expect global risk assets to start taking cues from Europe, not the Fed and China. However, risks of N-Exit - that other EU member states follow suit - may be overstated.