経済成長
The Norges Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% at its September meeting and signaled low odds of policy easing before the first quarter of 2025. The inflation backdrop does not warrant easing policy. Although core CPI cooled to 3.2% y/y in August,…
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization has been accompanied by exceptional outperformance by Japanese banks. Japanese banks have outperformed both the country’s broader market as well as the MSCI ACW Banks index by 10.3% and 2.6%, respectively, so far this…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, investor sentiment in Vietnamese markets has soured significantly since 2022, when the authorities' sweeping crackdown on alleged corruption in the real estate sector expanded to political…
Singapore is a small open economy sensitive to global trade dynamics. Its non-oil exports (NODX) are thus a good bellwether for global growth conditions. Overall exports, which are highly volatile on a month-on-month basis, decelerated at a…
One key takeaway from Wednesday’s post-FOMC press conference is the Fed’s unshaken conviction that it can avoid a recession. A risk-on mood dominated markets on Thursday, with the S&P 500 breaching new all-time highs while the 10-year Treasury yield rose…
In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress on corporate reforms is necessary for a rerating in Japanese shares. That is not yet very clear. The bottom line is: Stay long the yen.
The Fed started its easing cycle with a bang, cutting the policy rate by 50 basis points in September, above consensus expectations but in line with odds embedded in the futures and OIS curves. Our US Bond strategists had highlighted it is unusual for the…
US retail sales grew 0.1% m/m in August and beat expectations of a 0.2% monthly contraction. The positive surprise seemingly spurred equity market gains on Tuesday morning. However, details do not paint as rosy a picture as the headline number…
The ZEW survey of both German business expectations and current situation largely disappointed in September, decreasing by 15.6 points to 3.6 and by 7.2 points to -84.5, respectively. The ZEW survey of expectations for the broader Eurozone also fell…