石油・ガスの貯蔵および輸送

中東の紛争は続いており、米国とイスラエルがイランの軍事施設や国内治安拠点を攻撃し続ける中、イランは湾岸諸国に対してミサイルやドローンで応じている。イランの報復のペースは落ちたが、UAEへの攻撃に見られるように安定しているようだ。

The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability. The US is hobbled by its election. Conflicts with Russia, China, and Iran are all now escalating at the same time, at least marginally. Investors should reduce risk and shift to more defensive assets, markets, and sectors.

Stay overweight US equities versus world, long US energy sector versus Middle East stocks, and long Canada and Mexico versus global-ex-US stocks.

Commodity volatility will continue its rising trend since 2014. The US is on the brink of a major election, the outcome of which could reduce its willingness to engage with the outside world. So, states seeking to carve out their own spheres of influence are incentivized to raise the economic costs to the US and discourage its influence in their regions. These states can do this by interfering in key trading routes in their regions. As a result, geopolitical threats to maritime chokepoints are a structural as well as cyclical problem and will persist due to the revival of superpower competition.

In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but both situations support our overweight of US equities relative to global. Global growth is likely to slow while commodities are likely to see at least minor supply shocks.