新興市場
The flipside of the recent US dollar rally has been weakness across both DM and EM FX. The USD rally has legs and will have cross-asset reverberations. EM equities will be affected. A key determinant of EM returns is the currency, as investors cannot…
Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better positioned today than it was in 2018 to withstand the impact of a renewed trade war.
当社のポートフォリオ配分サマリー（2024年11月）
11月はS&Pが6,000に到達しました！トランプ大統領は「レッド・スウィープ」を制し（私たちが一年を通じて予想していた通り）、米国で政権交代をもたらしました。当面はモメンタムを追う姿勢で臨みます。しかし、市場にとって最大のリスクは債券利回りであり、投資家がトランプ大統領の政策とそれが財政赤字に及ぼす影響を織り込み始めると、利回りは上昇するはずです。
China’s October data for inflation and money disappointed. Headline CPI decelerated to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.4% in September, and PPI deflation worsened at -2.9% vs. -2.8% a month prior. While broad measures such as M2 accelerated, new loan growth has…
Our China Investment Strategy team recently met with clients in China to assess investor sentiment and discuss the outlook as Beijing unveils new stimulus measures. China’s economic recovery faces headwinds and is unlikely to stabilize until mid-2025.…
As highlighted recently, we do not think China’s announced stimulus measures will be enough to stave off deflation (see Today’s Pick). To lift China’s economy, Beijing must unveil large fiscal transfers to households and some initiatives to lift property…
先週は中国で顧客訪問を行いました。本レポートでは、顧客とのミーティングで出た主要な質問と当社の回答をいくつか紹介します。
Will the prospect of expanding trade tensions lead to more Chinese stimulus, and create an opportunity for Chinese equities? Not necessarily, as the election results were already factored in our EM and China strategists’ views. The Trump victory is not a…
The October ISM non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations, rising to 56 from 54.9 in September, up from a sub-50 low in June. Most components indicate an expansion, but the only significant increase came from employment. New orders retreated two points to 57.4.…