ポリシー

Stay defensive until recession risks are verifiably dispelled. Favor government bonds over stocks.

In this Special Report, we consider what some common monetary policy rules are recommending for the major central banks and derive conclusions on duration strategy and country allocation for bond investors. We conclude that rate hike expectations in most countries may appear appropriate given the current global backdrop of high inflation and low unemployment, but look elevated on a forward-looking basis versus slowing global growth and peaking global inflation.

The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy.

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

Go long the Kensho Space index over a cyclical horizon on the back of growing public and private investment, rising national security interests, declining sector costs, and heightened geopolitical risk.

The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.

The messages from the deteriorating fundamental backdrop (tight monetary policy, slowing global growth) and improved credit valuation (elevated 12-month breakeven spreads) are giving conflicting signals on corporate bond strategy. We are putting more weight on the fundamentals and are staying with an overall underweight stance on global investment grade corporates, with a slight bias towards Europe given more attractive spread valuations. At the same time, we see selective opportunities in sectors where risk-adjusted spreads are wide as signaled by our individual country sector valuation models, like US Energy and euro area Financials.

In this report, we identify the Norwegian krone as a currency that could outperform especially at the crosses, irrespective of the broad dollar trend.

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.

Stocks will only get temporary relief from gridlock. Inflation will abate but then remain sticky. US and global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain historically high.