インフレーション

Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.

特別レポート

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2025 discusses our expectations for interest rates, the Fed’s balance sheet and the 2025 strategic review. 

Our thoughts on this afternoon’s Fed decision and the bond market reaction. 

The value of both gold and bitcoin comes from the collective belief that they are the non-confiscatable assets to own in a fiat monetary system, as an insurance against hyperinflation, banking system failure, or state expropriation. As global wealth rises, the value of both gold and bitcoin will also rise. But as bitcoin takes market share from gold, bitcoin has considerably more upside than gold, with an ultimate destination of $200,000+. Plus: 10-year T-bonds and Portuguese stocks are tactically oversold.

今朝のCPI発表を受けてインフレ見通しを更新し、ティップスのブレークイーブン・インフレ率には下落の余地があると結論しました。

特別レポート

トランプの圧勝は、規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする民意の付託をもたらす。共和党が下院でかろうじて僅差で議席を確保しそうなため、財政赤字の拡大や移民制度改革も見込まれる。外交政策はより一国主義的になり、当初は米国資産が優位に立つだろう。

Bank Credit Analyst

トランプの圧勝は、規制緩和と貿易関税の引き上げを確実にする国民の信任をもたらす。共和党が米下院でかろうじて僅差で勝ちそうなため、財政赤字の拡大や移民制度改革も見込まれる。外交政策はより一方的になり、当初は米国資産が相対的に優位となるだろう。

We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures.

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.

特別レポート

Favor Health Care and Utilities for defensive positioning amid economic slowdown and volatility as the presidential election approaches. A Republican Sweep favors Real Estate and Materials, while the second most likely outcome, Democrat gridlock, favors Health Care, and Information Technology.