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This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
The SEK’s sharp rally is losing steam as local data weakens and EUR strength looks stretched. After appreciating more than 10% against the USD year-to-date, the krona is now showing signs of fatigue. Recent Swedish data has disappointed, with the Economic…
This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing Models.
Esta semana actualizamos nuestros Monitores de Bancos Centrales (CBMs), que nos ayudan a calibrar cómo debe ajustarse la política monetaria en las economías de mercados desarrollados. Nuestra conclusión es que, si bien en términos generales se requieren condiciones monetarias más acomodaticias, surgen algunas ideas de trading a partir de las divergencias en las señales entre los países del G10.
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
The Swedish economy’s cyclicality and sensitivity to global trade make it a reliable bellwether for global growth. Sweden is facing significant domestic weakness. Employment growth declined by 0.14% y/y in July and households’ debt burden stands at 155% of…
BCA Research’s European Investment strategists looked at previous episodes of carry-trade blowups and assessed the performance of the Eurozone’s key sectors, national markets, and currencies three and six months thereafter. Under both investment horizons,…
This report looks at the latest developments in G10 economies and implications for bond and FX market strategy.
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators.