Economy
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s property market indicators show signs of stabilization, and further mild improvement in the coming months is likely. However, a strong recovery is not in sight. Housing completion in March…
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
UK inflation came in hotter-than-anticipated in March. Headline inflation remained in double digits at 10.1% y/y, above expectations that it would recede from 10.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Similarly, the core index was unchanged at 6.2% y/y, disappointing consensus…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…
China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.
The ZEW Survey of German investor sentiment unexpectedly deteriorated in April. The sentiment index fell 8.9 points to 4.1, disappointing consensus estimates of an uptick to 15.6 and recording its second consecutive monthly decline. This move reveals that…
China’s economic data sent a positive signal about the domestic recovery following the dismantling of pandemic restrictions. GDP growth accelerated from 2.9% y/y in Q4 2022 to 4.5% y/y in Q1 2023, marking the fastest pace in a year and beating expectations of…
In a recent Insight we highlighted that Chinese exports unexpectedly rebounded in March. To the extent that Chinese export growth suggests that global demand for manufactured goods is recovering, it poses a risk to our view that the global trade downturn will…