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Economy

CoreMacro
The Impact Of Tight Money On European Stocks

A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?

3 years ago
Essentials
US Consumer Sentiment Relapses
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey show consumer sentiment relapsed in May. The headline index plunged from 63.5 to a six-month low of 57.7 – below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.0. Declines in both the current conditions as…
3 years ago
Essentials
On Food’s Rising Contribution To European Inflation
In Thursday’s BoE meeting, policymakers highlighted that stronger-than-anticipated food price gains contributed to recent upside surprises in the UK’s inflation rate. Rapidly climbing food inflation hit a 19.6% y/y in March. The UK is not alone. Similar…
3 years ago
Essentials
AUD/JPY And Its Message
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March bottom this year, the rally has…
3 years ago
Essentials
Will AI Usher In The Next Phase Transition In Economic Growth?
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, AI’s progression is following an exponential curve, not a linear one, meaning that advances could come much faster than expected. If humanity survives the transition to superintelligent AI, the…
3 years ago
AI
CoreMacro
ChatGPT And The Curse Of The Second Law
Special Report

The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms society and the economy.

Peter Berezin
3 years ago
AI
Essentials
China’s Recovery Disappoints
Chinese economic data sent a disappointing signal about the country’s economic recovery. CPI inflation moderated to 0.1% y/y – its slowest pace since February 2021. Similarly, the pace of decline in producer prices accelerated to -3.6% y/y. Meanwhile, new…
3 years ago
Essentials
BoE: Guided By Evidence
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth revisions reflect falling energy…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Banking Crisis Fuels Uncertainty
Our colleagues in BCA’s Commodity & Energy Service believe the US banking crisis is part and parcel of the fallout from the Fed’s shift to aggressive policy tightening undertaken last year when it realized inflation was not transitory. The banking crisis –…
3 years ago
FICC
The BoE And The Path For Sterling

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

3 years ago

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