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Economy

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Industrials: Revisiting The Trifecta

The US manufacturing renaissance, spurred on by reshoring, automation, and government spending, is running its course but progress has slowed on the back of tight monetary conditions and the manufacturing recession. The deceleration of these positive trends weighs on the outlook for the Capital Goods industry group, impeding its performance over the short term. However, we reiterate that positive long-term trends for the industry remain intact. We downgrade Capital Goods to a tactical underweight. It remains a strategic overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Economic Uncertainty Is Top Concern Among Canadian Businesses
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Daily Insights
PBoC Unexpectedly Holds Medium-Term Rate Steady
China’s central bank unexpectedly held the medium-term policy rate unchanged at 2.5% on Monday, surprising expectations of a 10 basis point cut. Given that deflationary forces dominate China’s economy, the decision to stand pat underscores that policymakers…
Daily Insights
Will Technicals Provide A Tailwind To Commodities?
The commodity complex struggled last year with the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index falling by 12% despite the relatively favorable performance of other cyclical financial assets. Several factors contributed to this weakness. In the case of oil, an increase in…
Daily Insights
European Stocks Are Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should not chase European equities higher from current levels. The soft-landing narrative has captured the minds of investors. The expectations of more disinflation and meaningful…
Daily Insights
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Taiwan Gridlock: Short TWD-USD

Taiwan’s election will lead to serious Chinese military and economic pressure but not full-scale war. War is a long-term concern. Investors should short TWD-USD.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Matt Gertken, Arthur Budaghyan
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Too Much Goldilocks

The soft-landing narrative has won, but is too much of a good thing now expected by investors?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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A New World Trade Order?

We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
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Greeting Q4-2023 Earnings Season

In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
A Call Option On Coming EV Market Disruptions
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the EV boom, much like the initial auto revolution over a century ago, could experience several disruptions. Buying diesel-engine era heroes can act as a call option on coming EV market…
Daily Insights

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