Developed Countries
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is sending an extremely pessimistic signal about the US economy. However, formal recession models maintained by regional Feds do not suggest that a recession is imminent. The June reading of the New York Fed’s version – based on…
Italy entered a new round of political turmoil on Thursday after the populist Five Star Movement refused to support Prime Minister Draghi’s government on a parliamentary vote for a EUR 26 bn inflation-relief package. Although the aid package was eventually…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Service, the stock market has not yet discounted a recession. Does the 2022 bear market mean that it has already discounted a recession? No, this year’s bear market is entirely due to a collapse in valuations.…
US headline CPI rose by a stronger-than-expected 9.1% y/y from 8.6% y/y (1.3% m/m from 1.0% m/m) in June, topping expectations of a milder increase. Gasoline, shelter and food continue to drive headline CPI. Notably, the core measure also firmed on a…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked interest rates by 50bps for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, bringing the Official Cash Rate to 2.5%. The MPC also signaled an intention to continue tightening monetary policy. Like other developed…
The Bank of Canada raised the policy rate by 100 bps on Wednesday, beating expectations of a 75bp hike. This move brings its target for the overnight rate to 2.5% and the central bank indicated that more hikes are coming. Headline CPI rose to 7.7% in May,…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent a cautionary signal on Tuesday. German sentiment slumped in July to the lowest level since 2011. The current situation and expectations indices dropped by 18.2 and 25.8 points, respectively – falling significantly…
A decision is expected shortly on whether President Joe Biden will roll back some of the Trump-era tariffs on imports from China. Voices within President Biden’s administration are divided. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is among those in favor of…
Small caps have been underperforming their large cap counterparts since October 2021. Indeed, these highly cyclical stocks tend to underperform larger companies when the business cycle slows down. Their relatively higher allocation to regional banks also…
While recession fears have spread to industrial metals and oil markets, natural gas prices have been soaring. Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices are up roughly 100% since June 1 and over 350% y/y. Supply-side disruptions continue to…