Developed Countries
It is easy to claim that the ECB is failing in light of today’s elevated inflation readings. Yet, the reality is more subtle and the ECB’s performance lays the ground for stronger growth ahead.
On the surface, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a strong positive surprise. Establishment survey results reveal that employment increased by 339 thousand in May – above both the upwardly revised 294 thousand gain in April as well as consensus…
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of UK…
US stocks have outperformed their global peers on a year-to-date basis. The MSCI US index’s 7.5% gain since January 18 eclipses the ACW index’s 3.1% increase. This trend has recently become even more pronounced: while the US index is up 1.5% since the end of…
In our FX strategists’ models, the Norwegian krone is one of the cheapest currencies. On its own, valuation is usually not a sufficient catalyst to unlock value in any currency. That said, there are a few signs that the Norwegian krone is approaching levels…
In this short weekly report, we review some of our favorite FX trades.
The Fed is still on track for a June pause, even after May’s strong nonfarm payroll print.
In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-month high of 51.5. On the other hand,…
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate, the resurfacing of…