Developed Countries
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…
In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.
Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted that US tech companies, which have led…
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book profits or consider merits of a short position, since prices are likely to correct over the next 12-24 months.
The US ISM delivered a positive signal about service sector activity in August. The headline index unexpectedly jumped by 1.8 points to a six-month high of 54.5, surprising expectations of a 0.2-point decline to 52.5. Importantly, the details of the report…
As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 5% on Wednesday. In particular, the central bank highlighted that domestic economic growth deteriorated. Indeed, last week’s GDP release showed the Canadian economy unexpectedly contracted by…
Recent Eurozone economic data indicate that restrictive monetary policy and the global manufacturing downturn are weighing down on the region’s economy. In particular, new orders at German factories plunged by 11.7% m/m in July – significantly below…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, Goldilocks is just a fairy tale. In the near-term, this will be negative for stocks, neutral for bonds, and positive for the dollar. The Fed can win the war against inflation, but not without much higher…