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Developed Countries

Is The Labor Market Stabilizing?
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7% in February, from 3.6%…
Daily Insights
Trimmed Mean PCE Shows Disinflation Is Abating
The Dallas Fed released its trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for February on Friday. The trimmed mean PCE is a measure of underlying inflation which excludes the top 31% and the bottom 25% of the PCE basket and then uses a weighted average of the remaining…
Daily Insights
Getting The US Consumer Right
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service is watching households, the labor market and consumer credit for signs of a business cycle inflection and the all-clear signal to underweight equities. Equity bear markets and recessions tend to…
Daily Insights
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Recession Postponed

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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Style Chart Pack: Reviewing Our Models

The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. However, companies are raising prices again and the no-landing outcome and fewer than three rate cuts this year are increasingly likely.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Strong PCE Report Increases Risk Of Second Wave
Friday’s PCE report showed a resilient US economy. Real personal consumption increased by 0.4% m/m in February, beating expectations of 0.1% m/m and remaining above its pre-pandemic trend. Both services and goods contributed positively. Real personal…
Daily Insights
BoC Will Be More Dovish Than The Fed
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of this year on Monday. While there are some early signs of stabilization, overall demand continues to be weak. The indicator for future sales growth remains well below its…
Daily Insights
Neutral BTP-Bund Spreads, Favor BTPs Versus Euro Area IG
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, investors should favor Italian BTPs over Euro Area IG until there is a better entry point to add exposure to BTP-bund spreads. The team’s latest estimates of the neutral rate suggest that,…
Daily Insights
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A Checklist For Turning Defensive

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Italy Is No Longer Europe’s Problem Child

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso

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