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President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions to countries that are negotiating, which he will showcase as proofs of his successful trade policy. While he may backpedal on his tariffs on other countries, China is not likely to receive the same treatment due to the US-China strategic competition.
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BCA | GeoMacro
A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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