Charts That Matter: Global Macro, China And EM

Last week, I visited clients in Europe. My recent report on Bessenomics – the name we gave to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's policy mix – was often the focal point of the discussions. 

We will continue discussing Bessenomics, its progress, and its investment implications in forthcoming reports. 

In the meantime, we are sending my chart pack used during this trip as a Charts That Matter publication – a chart-based report. It covers the following areas: China, Bessenomics, US fixed income, global currencies, EM credit markets, the global ex-US business cycle, EM and US equities, and an EM local bond relative value matrix. 

In my opinion, the most important variable in global financial markets are US long-term Treasury yields. If they hold above their 200-day moving average, odds are that new highs lie ahead. My hunch is that 10-year yields will break above 5%. When and as this happens, global risk assets will sell off considerably.