US stock market outperformance has been driven entirely by the 0.0002 percent of US superstar companies. But this superstar outperformance is based on two highly questionable assumptions: that all productivity gains from the generative-AI revolution will go into corporate profits; and specifically, into the profits of the Web 2.0 superstars which will morph into the generative-AI superstars. As these assumptions become undermined in the coming quarters, relative performance will reverse, starkly. On a structural horizon, stay maximum overweight Europe versus the US. Plus: time to go underweight global financials (IXG).
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