Portfolio

Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.

Informe especial

We recommend investors to be cautious on Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital. The marginal dollar is currently best suited for Private Credit at the expense of Private Equity. Our next Special Report will examine why we prefer lenders of capital.

We see a more positive backdrop for credit providers, with bilateral and structuring features as tailwinds for Private Credit. While there may be potential green shoots in some areas of Private Equity, current valuations are not attractive. We prefer Directional Hedge Funds over Diversifier and Risk Mitigation strategies. Real Estate has been an effective hedge against inflation, but now historically low cap rates are a headwind.

MacroQuant is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and overweight cash. Within equities, the model favors Europe over the US and is neutral on EM.

High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

The MacroQuant model is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and neutral on cash. Within equities, it is underweight EM and overweight Europe.

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.

Informe especial

We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-asset portfolio. Remain underweight on equities, overweight on fixed income, and neutral on cash.

Informe especial

This is the first of two Special Reports aiming to answer client questions in response to the recent dramatic changes in stock-bond correlations. In this report we focus on what role US Treasurys have played since 1872, how the current regime shift in stock-bond correlation compares to 150-years of history, and how it will impact asset allocation going forward.

The model is neutral on equities, bonds, and cash. Within equities, it is underweight Japan and the US, and overweight EM and Europe.