Portfolio

We see challenges ahead for Global Buyout across geographies as valuations need further resetting. While we are concerned with capital controls and flight risk in Asia-Pacific Venture Capital, the upside potential from AI may be worth a look. The current entry point for Private Credit is opportune across North America and Europe with the distressed pipeline building. Real Estate does not look appealing with the macro and relative opportunity set driving our underweight. Hedge Funds have a favorable backdrop in the near-term, although prospects differ across Directional, Diversifier, and Crisis Risk Offset strategies.

MacroQuant is overweight equities, underweight bonds, and neutral cash.

Recession is on track to start around year-end. Stocks usually peak shortly before recession begins. So, position defensively but be prepared for a few more months of the rally.

Informe especial

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our framework recommends a defensive positioning across all asset classes.

Informe especial

In this follow-up report on global stock-bond correlations, first, we investigate stock-bond correlations in 19 major DM and EM countries, then we use a systematic approach to identify the key macro drivers that impact the stock-bond correlations globally. Finally, we present how correlations will evolve by year end based on our model forecast and implications for asset allocators globally.

Informe especial

We are overweight Private Credit. Improvements in yield, negotiating leverage, and structuring upside are major tailwinds over the coming years. The business cycle provides an attractive backdrop for all Private Credit sub-asset classes. In this Special Report we examine Private Credit as a whole, but with more emphasis on the income-focused sub-categories of Senior and Mezzanine Debt.

Informe especial

We are overweight Private Credit. Improvements in yield, negotiating leverage, and structuring upside are major tailwinds over the coming years. The business cycle provides an attractive backdrop for all Private Credit sub-asset classes. In this Special Report we examine Private Credit as a whole, but with more emphasis on the income-focused sub-categories of Senior and Mezzanine Debt.

MacroQuant is slightly underweight equities, and overweight bonds and cash. Within the equity universe, the model favors the US, Japan, and the UK, is neutral on Europe, and underweight Emerging Markets.

Risk assets would perform well over 12 months only if inflation falls to 2% without triggering a recession. That would be unprecedented. We recommend investors stay defensive.

MacroQuant is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and overweight cash. Within equities, the model favors Europe over the US and is underweight on EM.