GeoMacro

Informe especial

Informe especial

Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy reviews prospects for "Bremorse," latest in the U.S. election, Italian political crisis, tensions in South China Sea, and the long-term future of Europe.

Signs that the median voter is moving to the left are everywhere. Markets will cheer the move as it means more government spending. In the long term, it depends if policymakers stop at fiscal stimulus. In this Monthly Report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy reviews prospects for "Bremorse," latest in the U.S. election, Italian political crisis, tensions in South China Sea, and the long-term future of Europe.

Informe especial

The only certainty regarding the next steps in the Brexit Saga is uncertainty. In the attached report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy presents the BREXIT Decision Tree and reviews the possible next steps. We also collate all of the BCA investment views and strategies - tactical and strategic - that relate to the ongoing saga.

Informe especial

The Russo-Chinese relationship got a diplomatic boost this week, but can China provide Russia with the capital it needs to boost productivity meaningfully?

Informe especial

Informe especial

The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the largest swath of voters. The median voter in the Anglo-Saxon world is shifting to the left, and regardless of what happens in the Brexit referendum or the U.S. election, this shift will be the most consequential development for markets.

The median voter theory is one of the few genuine theories of political science. It assumes that voters have limited policy priorities and that politicians want power. Therefore the latter will adjust their stances to satisfy the largest swath of voters. The median voter in the Anglo-Saxon world is shifting to the left, and regardless of what happens in the Brexit referendum or the U.S. election, this shift will be the most consequential development for markets.

Informe especial

A combination of physical rebalancing in the oil markets and geopolitical risk have pushed oil prices above $50/bbl. We therefore close our recommendation - made jointly with BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy team - to long a December 2016 WTI $50/$55 call spread for a 106.3% gain.

Informe especial

Brazilian assets are no longer oversold, are not cheap, and the political reality will likely fall far short of market expectations. Investors should continue to avoid/underweight Brazilian risk assets.